866
FXUS61 KCTP 121825
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED RISK FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
2) BRIEF BREAK FROM THE EPISODIC PRECIP PATTERN AND HIGH HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED RISK FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS
OF 1710 UTC, WITH THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE SEVERE RISK TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED
FOR WATCH ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, A TARGETED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED SHOULD GREATER STORM/SEVERE COVERAGE
PREVAIL.
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, WE'RE FAVORING
IN INCREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM NNW TO SSE (DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE ERIE AND ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO/WESTERN
NY) FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: BRIEF BREAK FROM THE EPISODIC PRECIP PATTERN AND
HIGH HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE MD LINE INTO THE WEEKEND. WE STILL EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE EPISODIC TSTM PRECIP PATTERN AND VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA. ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS A RAMP IN PRECIP ODDS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCT-BKN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS/CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE AS MODEL
DATA GENERALLY INDICATE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN NY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS VIA MVFR PROB30S, HOWEVER A LOCALLY HEAVY TSTM
DOWNPOUR COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR
IS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FAVORS IFR/LIFR CLOUD CIGS AT KBFD/KJST AFTER 06Z.
FLIGHT CATS WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR PROBABLE BY 18Z THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE, THEN MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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