861
FXUS61 KCTP 130127
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
927 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
2) BRIEF BREAK FROM THE EPISODIC PRECIP PATTERN AND HIGH HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
SPC DID CUT BACK ON THE OULK. AS WAS THE CASE AROUND 5 PM
YESTERDAY AND TODAY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FORMED JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST, NEAR THE FRONT.
STILL A FEW STRONG STORMS JUST TO OUR NORTH, BUT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MAINLY OUTSIDE OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH NOT ALL THAT WARM NOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF MDT, A FEW
CELLS FORMED IN THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS, BUT THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS MAINLY NEAR THE RIVER, AND GIVEN TRENDS AND
TIME OF DAY, HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON WITH THESE CELLS.
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING.
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, WE'RE FAVORING
IN INCREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM NNW TO SSE (DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE ERIE AND ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO/WESTERN
NY) FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
-----------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: BRIEF BREAK FROM THE EPISODIC PRECIP PATTERN AND
HIGH HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY MAY BE SUNDAY VS. MONDAY, BUT
COULD SEE THE ACTIVITY LINGER INTO MONDAY. LIKE RECENT EVENTS,
WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORT STORM FORMATION,
AS THE WARM AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE MD LINE INTO THE WEEKEND. WE STILL EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE EPISODIC TSTM PRECIP PATTERN AND VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA. ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS A RAMP IN PRECIP ODDS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCT-BKN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS/CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE AS MODEL
DATA GENERALLY INDICATE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN NY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS VIA MVFR PROB30S, HOWEVER A LOCALLY HEAVY TSTM
DOWNPOUR COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR
IS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FAVORS IFR/LIFR CLOUD CIGS AT KBFD/KJST AFTER 06Z.
FLIGHT CATS WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR PROBABLE BY 18Z THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE, THEN MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
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