586
FXUS61 KCTP 130848
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
448 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EARLY TODAY. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE EPISODIC PRECIP PATTERN AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE EPISODIC PRECIP
PATTERN AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY.
THE NOSE OF A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A QUITE
STRONG, DIFFLUENT PATTER BETWEEN IT, AND ANOTHER JUST SEGMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS MESO-B SCALE FORCING HAS LED TO AN EXPANDING (BUT STILL
QUITE FOCUSED) AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA THAT
BROUGHT A GENERAL 1-2 TENTHS OF RAINFALL IN ABOUT A 15 MINUTE
PERIOD AS THEY MOVED THROUGH KUNV AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH JUST A
FEW STRAY/BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW -
MAINLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PA WHERE A BKN-OVC STRATOCU LAYER
COULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MID MORNING CLOUDS
WILL QUICKLY BREAK WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH
CIRRUS) DEVELOPING BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE STATE.
THE REMNANTS OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA
OVER THE MIDWEST LATER THIS EVENING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AS A REMNANT MCV AND LIKELY LINK UP WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG JET CORE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS (AND A FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS - MAINLY IN
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW 1/3 OF THE
STATE.
CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE AND COMFORTABLY LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY MAY BE SUNDAY VS. MONDAY, BUT
COULD SEE THE ACTIVITY LINGER INTO MONDAY. LIKE RECENT EVENTS,
WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORT STORM FORMATION,
AS THE WARM AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE MD LINE INTO THE WEEKEND. WE STILL EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE EPISODIC TSTM PRECIP PATTERN AND VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA. ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS A RAMP IN PRECIP ODDS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS (SOME BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN
INTENSITY) WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS BETWEEN
09-11Z TODAY, BRINGING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL,
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE
BULK OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
EARLY MORNING IFR THEN MVFR STRATO CU ACROSS THE NW MTNS WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE DIMMED BY VARIABLE
AMOUNTS (AND THICKNESS) OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FLIGHT CATS WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR PROBABLE BY 18Z THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE, THEN MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BOWEN
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