464
FXUS61 KCTP 131801
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BUMPED FOG PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY LATER INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
OTHER THAN THAT, FEW MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN STATEWIDE LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.
2) SUNDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO WET CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN STATEWIDE LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THICKER MORNING
CLOUDS IN THE WEST ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP ARE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TO TAKE ON A MORE SCATTERED CHARACTER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. AS A 90KT+ UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO THE AREA, SO TOO IS A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL.
SAID UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAVERSE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, PASSING OVER NEW YORK/NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION PASSES OVER
PENNSYLVANIA, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM
CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MIDWEST. THIS ASCENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE LATER TOMORROW.
MAIN TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.
THE ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE, BUT DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP
THINGS FAIRLY ISOLATED.
AS THESE FEATURES PASS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH, SKIES SHOULD START CLEARING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR SOME RELATIVELY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUNDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO WET CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL ALLOW A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS, WITH PWATS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 2" INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WITH A SECONDARY LOW LIKELY
FORMING CLOSER TO PENNSYLVANIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM
FRONT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT, THIS WILL INVIGORATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A COLD FRONT
DRAPING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF PENNSYLVANIA TARGETED FOR HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES AND
TOTALS. EXACT TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEARER AS WE
APPROACH SUNDAY. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/TRAINING ACTIVITY, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. SHOULD THE COLD FRONT STALL/MOVE SLOWER, ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT PASSAGE, THE START OF
NEXT WEEK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS (SOME BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN
INTENSITY) WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS BETWEEN
09-11Z TODAY, BRINGING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL,
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE
BULK OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
EARLY MORNING IFR THEN MVFR STRATO CU ACROSS THE NW MTNS WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE DIMMED BY VARIABLE
AMOUNTS (AND THICKNESS) OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FLIGHT CATS WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR PROBABLE BY 18Z THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE, THEN MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBRECH
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBRECH
DISCUSSION...LAMBRECH
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BOWEN
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