995
FXUS61 KCTP 141755
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH BASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
STATE.
2) SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
HIGH BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE STATE.
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS JET DRIFTS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL INTERACT WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM CONVECTION
THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
THIS AREA OF MORE FOCUSED ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE LATER TODAY.
MAIN TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.
THE ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE, BUT DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP
THINGS FAIRLY ISOLATED.
IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND SKIES SHOULD START CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL ALLOW A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS, WITH PWATS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 2" INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WITH A SECONDARY LOW LIKELY
FORMING CLOSER TO PENNSYLVANIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM
FRONT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT, THIS WILL INVIGORATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A COLD FRONT
DRAPING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF PENNSYLVANIA TARGETED FOR HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES AND
TOTALS. EXACT TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEARER AS WE
APPROACH SUNDAY. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/TRAINING ACTIVITY, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. SHOULD THE COLD FRONT STALL/MOVE SLOWER, ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT PASSAGE, THE START OF
NEXT WEEK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT RAIN AROUND KJST THROUGH 21Z WITH MVFR CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF KJST INTO THE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR INTO TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED BEARISH ON FOG POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AIRSPACE SO ADJUSTED TO VCFG WITH THE 14/18Z SCHEDULED
ISSUANCE. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
HEAVY THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MON-TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTM MONDAY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/MARTIN/LAMBRECH
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/MARTIN/LAMBRECH
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/MARTIN/LAMBRECH
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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