871
FXUS61 KCTP 141910
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* BUMPED POPS FOR THE SW FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS, BUT NOT MUCH BUMP
TO QPF.
* SPC SEVERE WX RISK HAS DECREASED OVER SW PA FOR SAT/NIGHT
WHILE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK HAS EXPANDED A BIT FOR SAT-
SUN TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN OVER THE SW WON'T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS, BUT THE RISK RETURNS SAT NIGHT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION AND POSSBILE HEAVY RAIN. THEN THE RISK EXPANDS TO THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT.
2) FOG TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN OVER THE SW WON'T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS, BUT THE RISK RETURNS SAT NIGHT
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND POSSBILE HEAVY RAIN. THEN THE RISK
EXPANDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT.
RAIN IS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY AND FLOWING RIGHT OVER THE WETTEST
AREA OF THE CWA. THANKFULLY, IT IS LIGHT AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THAT WAY AS NO LTG HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND IT SHOULD STAY
AS STABLE AS IT HAS BEEN.
THERE IS JUST A TINY RISK OF ONE OF THE CU OUT IN THE REST OF
THE CWA POKING THROUGH THE CAP AND MAKING A FEW RAINDROPS. HAVE
ONLY SPOTTY POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY, AND MAINLY IN THE NE.
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A VERY MATURE CYCLONE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT NIGHT, OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP.
THE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY BE OVER THE SW WHERE IT IS ALREADY THE
WETTER PLACE IN THE CWA. FFGS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE 1.25"/HR, AND
A MAINLY DRY TIME SAT SHOULD HELP THOSE RISE A LITTLE. BUT, AS
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME, WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A (FLASH) FLOOD
WATCH FOR SUN. CHOSE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE TIME
RANGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW HEAVY AND REPETITIVE THE
RAIN/STORMS WILL BE LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND ESPECIALLY HOW WIDE
OF AN AREA TO COVER WITH A WATCH. ERO FROM WPC HYDRO FORECASTERS
HAS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (NRN TIER = NOT YET) IN THE SLGT RISK
CATEGORY FOR DAY 3 (SUN).
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOG TONIGHT.
AS WE CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, SOME FOG IS EXPECTED AS FRI AM. WE
AREN'T EXPECTING IT TO BE ANY BETTER OR WORSE THAN LAST NIGHT.
THE VALLEYS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FOG, AND DOWN IN THE SW
WHERE THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE AMBIENT MOISTURE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT RAIN AROUND KJST THROUGH 21Z WITH MVFR CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF KJST INTO THE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR INTO TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED BEARISH ON FOG POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AIRSPACE SO ADJUSTED TO VCFG WITH THE 14/18Z SCHEDULED
ISSUANCE. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
HEAVY THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MON-TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTM MONDAY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page