528
FXUS61 KCTP 290700
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RAIN-FREE WEEKEND IS ON TAP
2) LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS STILL SLATED TO END THE MONTH OF AUGUST
AND START SEPTEMBER NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ALSO PRESENT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THIS
WILL MEAN PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS
THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN OUR RECENT WET STRETCH OF WEATHER AND
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG WILL BE COMMON, PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH
INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO CREEP UPWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DURING NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
OUR VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS THAT AN EXPANSIVE
SUMMER-TIME RIDGE AXIS AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
FLEX ITS MUSCLE AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND MIDDLE OF THE CONUS.
THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY CONSEQUENCES FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO. FIRST, VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN, EVEN AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO SEPTEMBER. SECOND, AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES, AND OVERRUNS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM, STICKY AIR, EPISODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH FINE DETAILS ARE NOT YET
APPARENT, THIS OVERALL PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS LOCALLY STRONG-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEK, WE HOPE TO ADD MORE CLARITY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY, BRINGING VFR WITH
LIGHT WIND, EXCELLENT VISIBILITY AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE ONLY BLEMISH IN THIS OTHERWISE EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL
BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOUT 3-4 HOURS (08-12Z) OF MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG AND PERHAPS A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD (08-10Z) OF IFR THROUGHOUT
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA WHERE THE AIR/WATER TEMP
DIFFERENCE WILL REACH 25-28 DEG F IN SOME PLACES.
HREF PROBS OF IFR VISIBILITY ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT ALL
TAF SITES, BUT BFD, UNV, AND IPT COULD STILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...JUREWICZ
KEY MESSAGES...JUREWICZ
DISCUSSION...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
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