412
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* WPC MRGL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK LEVEL 1 ADDED FOR WED (9/2).
KEY MESSAGES
1) LATE SUMMER HEAT+HUMIDITY TO CLOSE AUGUST AND OPEN SEPTEMBER
2) BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN & SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LATE SUMMER HEAT+HUMIDITY TO CLOSE AUGUST AND
OPEN SEPTEMBER
THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE A SPRAWLING 500MB
ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY EXPANDING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DELIVER A STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY (LAST DAY OF AUGUST) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY (FIRST FEW DAYS OF SEPTEMBER).
THE HEAT WILL PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM DAYTIME HEAT. THIS WARM/HUMID AIR
WILL ALSO PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK WEARS
ON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN & SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
A SERIES OF DYNAMIC SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH HUMIDITY/VERY HIGH PWS, STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/FAVORABLE JET STREAKS, AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A FEW EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TYPICAL
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES OF THE SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED, BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL IS SUPPORTIVELY BULLISH FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WPC HAS CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL PA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A NEW, BROADER COVERAGE FOR WED/D5. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE 15% OR LEVEL 2/5 EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBS ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING ADDITIONAL PROBS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON EITHER SIDE OF DAY 5 BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE ML AND AI
GENERATED GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS WERE OBSERVED THIS EVENING, WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT VFR
CONDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT/NWD ADVECTION OF A STRATOCU DECK OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY, WITH CIGS OF 2500-4000 FT AGL. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT LNS AND MDT TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A LIGHT SFC W/SW WIND OF 5-10 KTS DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. ANY MVFR CIGS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD
LIFT BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA OR TSRA COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY, ESP ACROSS NORTHERN PA, BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE;
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...EVANEGO
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