132
FXUS61 KCTP 030027
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES THIS
EVENING
KEY MESSAGES
1) LATE SUMMER SURGE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LATE SUMMER SURGE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH
THURSDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG WNW FLOW
ALOFT TO PROMOTE SEVERE STORM AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AFTER A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING, ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA WITH
PLENTY OF HEATING AND VERY RICH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75F RANGE.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING IN AN CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
WERE STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA.
INCREASED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN THE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND VERY HIGH
DEWPOINTS. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11A-8P THURSDAY
ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA WHERE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH/EXCEED 100F.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF CENTRAL PA THURSDAY, AND SOUTH OF THE PA-MD BORDER
ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FAVORS ONE FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY, BUT FORTUNATELY THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH SCATTERED STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL PA, HAVE
INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. EXACT TIMING OF WHEN EXACTLY ANY OF
THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT A SITE REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
BUT ANY IMPACTS TO TERMINALS COULD SEE LIGHTNING AND IFR
VISIBILITY DROPS IN HEAVY RAIN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING HAS KICKED UP STORMS IN NEW YORK WHICH
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. MOST GUIDANCES CONTINUES THIS LINE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
ITS WESTERN FLANKS. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR MOST CONFIDENT
TIMING OF ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF PREVAILING FOG
CONDITIONS AT JST AND AOO SO ADJUSTED VISIBILITIES THERE.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THOUGH IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS PATHS WITH THE TERMINALS. PREVAILING
IFR CEILINGS LOOK MOST LIKELY IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS STARTING
AROUND TOMORROW. MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO THESE
RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING AT MDT AND LNS LATER INTO THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT JST AND AOO
TOMORROW BUT SEEING HOW THESE STORMS TONIGHT UNFOLD MAY CHANGE
TIMING/OTHER SITES THAT MAY SEE IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; MORNING FOG.
FRI...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SW. VFR ELSEWHERE AFTER MORNING FOG.
SAT-MON...VFR FAVORED; MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
035-036-056-057-059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBRECH
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