644
FXUS61 KCTP 041915
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FROM 18Z FRI TO 12Z SAT FOR OUR 4 SW
COUNTIES OF CAMBRIA, BLAIR, SOMERSET AND BEDFORD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AND LINGERING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
WITH A CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT - FOCUSED OVER OUR
FAR SW ZONES.
2) DRY, LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONE MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AND LINGERING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
A CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT - FOCUSED OVER OUR FAR SW
ZONES.
THE RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS
A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST US. POCKETS OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NE PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
STORMS TO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS, AND AT LEAST ONE
MORE EPISODE IS ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHT SOUTHWEST PA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE MOST LIKELY
CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY/POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAIN.
AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL RACE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON, BRUSHING OUR FAR SW ZONES (I.E., SOMERSET CTY).
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AT THE ML CAPE VIA THE HRRR AND A NEARLY EAST/WEST AXIS
OF 1000+ J/KG CAPE VALUES LINGERS OVER SOMERSET AND BEDFORD
COUNTIES RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT - UNTIL 12Z SAT. HOURLY FFG
VALUES ARE LOCALLY ONLY AROUND 0.75 ACROSS BEDFORD COUNTY WHICH
IS A CONCERN AS THE AREA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-76 STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE AT DEEPER CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES.
FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS & BEDFORD COUNTY,
THERE COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAKER FORCING MEANS SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PA/NY BORDER WILL BEGIN ITS
SOUTHWARD SURGE TONIGHT, HELPED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THIS PUSH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SATURDAY AND
THE REMAINDER OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL
TREND CONSIDERABLY LOWER. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
SATURDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE REAL RELIEF ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG, THE WEATHER WILL BE REALLY
NICE FOR THE SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS 45-55F BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
WEATHER STICKS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT, THE
RIDGE MAY BUILD ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
A RETURN TO THE RING OF FIRE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME CONTAINING
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND BRUSHING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SW PA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, LEADING TO THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE GREATER
KJST AND KAOO AREAS...SW TO KLBE AND KPBZ.
AREAS OF LOW-END VFR CEILINGS FROM A LAYER OF SHALLOW STRATOCU
WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF PA AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING BFD AND
KAOO. KJST WILL SEE PERIODS OF IFR AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND VCTS, WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST GROUND LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS IN AREAS OF FOG, THAT WILL QUICKLY MIX
OUT WITHIN 90 MINUTES AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR FAVORED; MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ024-025-033-034.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
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