722
FXUS61 KCTP 042044
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH, POPS, QPF FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.
2) DRIER, LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
LARGE SCALE UPLIFT IS LACKING - OR EVEN TURNED NEGATIVE OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN. THERE ARE SOME TALLER CU IN TWO SEPARATE
LINES RUNNING NW-SE. WE'VE LEFT POPS, BUT NOT MORE THAN 40S, IN
THOSE AREAS THROUGH 05Z/MIDNIGHT. BUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. WITH THE DECIDED LACK OF RAIN
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, WE'VE
DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH.
-------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER, LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY
AND LASTS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PA/NY BORDER WILL BEGIN ITS
SOUTHWARD SURGE TONIGHT, HELPED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THIS PUSH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SATURDAY AND
THE REMAINDER OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL
TREND CONSIDERABLY LOWER. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
SATURDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE REAL RELIEF ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG, THE WEATHER WILL BE REALLY
NICE FOR THE SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY MONDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS 45-55F BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
WEATHER STICKS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT, THE
RIDGE MAY BUILD ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
A RETURN TO THE RING OF FIRE.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONVECTION VERY SPARSE AT 20Z, AND ONLY A COUPLE LINES OF
CONVERGENCE AND TALLER CU EXIST. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ONLY GOING TO BE VERY WEAK AND ISOLATED. HOWEVER, STILL
SOME SIGNAL THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE VCTY IPT/MDT
THROUGH 05Z. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST GROUND LATER
TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS IN AREAS OF FOG, THAT
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN 90 MINUTES AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE. THERE IS STILL A 30-40% CHC OF
TSRA OVER JST AND AOO ON SAT. COOL AIR ALOFT AND A PAIR OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAR AN OTHERWISE
EXCELLENT DAY FOR FLYING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR FAVORED; MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
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