957
FXUS61 KCTP 191741
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA FOR INTO EARLY EVENING.
* OVERALL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY TRENDING LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY.
2) RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SUNDAY.
SOME DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS, MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS THIS
MORNING SO FAR HAVE BEEN AT MID LEVELS, BUT ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FAR WESTERN PA TO MATCH OTHERS, AS SOME RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS OF EARLY AFT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING
LOW FROM THE CENTRAL STATES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY. TRENDS ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND FASTER NOW. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER
BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY.
THE AIRMASS IS RATHER COOL AND DRY TO START. HOWEVER, STILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTH FOR THUNDER, GIVEN FCST TEMPS.
THUNDER COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH, BUT MAINLY ELEVATED
IN THAT CASE.
IT HAS BEEN WET, BUT WITH THE TREND WITH LOWER QPF AND
A BIT FASTER MOVEMENT, NOT REALLY EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS
AT THIS PT.
-------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. ON THE COOL SIDE
AS WELL.
A LARGE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, GIVING
THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY LOOKING
LIKE THE BEST DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
AS ONE HEADS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A WEDGE OF COLDER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA, GIVEN THIS CAD
PATTERN. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WEST
AND SOUTH, GIVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH.
PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW
RAMPS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT THAT FAR FROM NORMAL,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
VFR CONDITIONS AS ANY CLOUDS LOOK TO BE SCATTERED BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET.
THIS EVENING, WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/SHOWERS
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS ARE FAVORED WITH THE ONSET OF THESE SHOWERS AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BORDERLINE LLWS CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS 925 MB WINDS BUILD TO AROUND 170DEG/35KTS LATER
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LLWS MENTIONS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE IF PROJECTED WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE FROM
CURRENT GUIDANCE (25-30 KTS).
OUTLOOK...
SUN...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL (80%), WITH IFR POSSIBLE
(30-50%), PARTICULARLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING MIST AND LOW CLOUDS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA, WITH IMPROVEMENTS UP TO
VFR POSSIBLE TOWARDS NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/BR AND LOW CEILINGS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...BAUCO/TEARE
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