225
FXUS61 KCTP 191845
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA FOR INTO EARLY EVENING.
* OVERALL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY TRENDING LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY.
2) RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SUNDAY.
SOME DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS, MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS THIS
MORNING SO FAR HAVE BEEN AT MID LEVELS, BUT ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FAR WESTERN PA TO MATCH OTHERS, AS SOME RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS OF EARLY AFT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING
LOW FROM THE CENTRAL STATES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY. TRENDS ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND FASTER NOW. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER
BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY.
THE AIRMASS IS RATHER COOL AND DRY TO START. HOWEVER, STILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTH FOR THUNDER, GIVEN FCST TEMPS.
THUNDER COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH, BUT MAINLY ELEVATED
IN THAT CASE.
IT HAS BEEN WET, BUT WITH THE TREND WITH LOWER QPF AND
A BIT FASTER MOVEMENT, NOT REALLY EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS
AT THIS PT.
-------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. ON THE COOL SIDE
AS WELL.
A LARGE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, GIVING
THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY LOOKING
LIKE THE BEST DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
AS ONE HEADS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A WEDGE OF COLDER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA, GIVEN THIS CAD
PATTERN. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WEST
AND SOUTH, GIVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH.
PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW
RAMPS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT THAT FAR FROM NORMAL,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD PA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY
WON'T COME THROUGH, STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. RADAR
PAINTED WITH SMALL PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RA FLOWING OVERHEAD,
COMING OUT OF RATHER THIN MID AND LOWER DECKS. FOR NOW,
EVERYONE IS VFR EXCEPT FOR JST (AND DUJ JUST TO OUR W) WHERE
SOME HEAVIER RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR. A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WILL LEAD TO IFR AT MOST SITES FOR
TONIGHT. BFD/JST ARE CERTAIN TO DROP TO IFR AND HAVE A 60% CHC
OF LIFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND DAYTIME SUNDAY.
WHILE HREF/RRFS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON POOR FLYING CONDITIONS,
MOS HAS IT PEGGED. GOING TO LEAN ON MOS CIGS AND VSBYS VERY MUCH
FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE DOES BRING A 30-35KT
LLJET UP AND ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT, DRIVING THE RAIN. IT WILL
ALSO GET LOW ENOUGH AND JUST FAST ENOUGH TO PERHAPS MAKE SOME
LLWS. SINCE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE HIGH, THAT BUMPS ME
INTO INCLUDING SOME LLWS AT ALL BUT JST AND AOO TONIGHT. IT
SHOULD WANE TOWARD MORNING. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND THUNDER AT JST/AOO, WE'LL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, SUNDAY WILL BE A
RAINY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR FOR EVERYONE AND OCCNL IFR AT THE
HIGHER TERMINALS. THE STEADIER MODERATE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND
MOVES TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. BUT, SOME --RA AND LOWER MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS WILL LAST MUCH OF SUN NIGHT AND MON, ESP ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED FOR
LNS AND MDT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/BR AND LOW CEILINGS,
MAINLY S.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO
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