047
FXUS61 KCTP 192344
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA FOR INTO EARLY EVENING.
* OVERALL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY TRENDING LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY.
2) RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT, HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SUNDAY.
SOME DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS, MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS THIS
MORNING SO FAR HAVE BEEN AT MID LEVELS, BUT ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FAR WESTERN PA TO MATCH OTHERS, AS SOME RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS OF EARLY AFT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING
LOW FROM THE CENTRAL STATES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY. TRENDS ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND FASTER NOW. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER
BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY.
THE AIRMASS IS RATHER COOL AND DRY TO START. HOWEVER, STILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTH FOR THUNDER, GIVEN FCST TEMPS.
THUNDER COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH, BUT MAINLY ELEVATED
IN THAT CASE.
IT HAS BEEN WET, BUT WITH THE TREND WITH LOWER QPF AND
A BIT FASTER MOVEMENT, NOT REALLY EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS
AT THIS PT.
-------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. ON THE COOL SIDE
AS WELL.
A LARGE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, GIVING
THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY LOOKING
LIKE THE BEST DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
AS ONE HEADS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A WEDGE OF COLDER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA, GIVEN THIS CAD
PATTERN. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WEST
AND SOUTH, GIVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH.
PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW
RAMPS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT THAT FAR FROM NORMAL,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISOLATED RAIN IS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z. FOR NOW, EVERYONE IS VFR EXCEPT FOR JST AND BFD
WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AND LEAD TO IFR AT MOST
SITES FOR TONIGHT. BFD/JST ARE CERTAIN TO DROP TO IFR AND HAVE A
60% CHC OF LIFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND DAYTIME
SUNDAY. WHILE HREF/RRFS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS, MOS HAS IT PEGGED. GOING TO LEAN ON MOS CIGS AND
VSBYS VERY MUCH FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD.
MOST GUIDANCE DOES BRING A 30-35KT LLJET UP AND ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT, DRIVING THE RAIN. IT WILL ALSO GET LOW ENOUGH AND JUST
FAST ENOUGH TO PERHAPS MAKE SOME LLWS. SINCE THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH, THAT BUMPS ME INTO INCLUDING SOME LLWS AT
ALL BUT JST AND AOO TONIGHT. IT SHOULD WANE TOWARD MORNING.
WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND THUNDER AT
JST/AOO, WE'LL KEEP AWAY FROM MENTIONING IT FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER, SUNDAY WILL BE A RAINY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR FOR
EVERYONE AND OCCASIONAL IFR AT THE HIGHER TERMINALS. THE
STEADIER MODERATE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT, SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS WILL LAST MUCH OF SUN NIGHT AND MON, ESP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED FOR LNS
AND MDT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/BR AND LOW CEILINGS,
MAINLY S.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO/BOWEN
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