120
FXUS61 KCTP 221954
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST ROLLING ALONG NICELY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE AWAY
FROM PA TONIGHT AND WED. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS STILL LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
MOVE AWAY FROM PA TONIGHT AND WED. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS STILL
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF PA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL
START TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LINGERING
SHRA OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WILL POSE NO HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. ANY RA LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING COULD BE ENTIRELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA. WE'LL START TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE COASTAL LOW
ON FRIDAY OR EVEN BEFORE THEN. WE ARE LEAVING IN THE NBM 20 POPS
FOR THE EAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PLACES E OF THE SUSQ R WITHOUT
ANY CONFIDENCE TO TOTALLY DROP MENTIONS OF IT. SOME EARLY AM
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY THRU THE PERIOD AS OUR DEWPOINTS
NEVER GET ALL THAT DRY AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL START TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS OF -RA/RA THAT COULD CAUSE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS OVER THE TERMINALS OF
JST, AOO, MDT, AND LNS. A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL WESTERN TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
IFR TO BRIEFLY LIFR ARE MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) WHERE EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS
TERRAIN + STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOK TO OVERLAP LATER TONIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES OR VERY FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...TRENDING VFR ACROSS CENTRAL PA, WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY WHERE -SHRA/BR AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
FRI-SAT...VFR FAVORED AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
BRING SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THOUGH -RA AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH OUR EASTERN TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL BEGINS TODAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026, AT 8:04PM
EDT. THIS MARKS THE TIME OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WHEN THE SUN IS
DIRECTLY ABOVE EARTH'S EQUATOR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page