627
FXUS61 KCTP 230154
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIG CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY
MAINLY EAST OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, GIVING WAY TO DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS STILL LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF PA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL
START TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LINGERING
SHRA OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WILL POSE NO HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. ANY -RA LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING COULD BE ENTIRELY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. WE'LL START TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY OR EVEN BEFORE THEN. WE ARE LEAVING IN THE
NBM 20 POPS FOR THE EAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PLACES E OF THE
SUSQ R WITHOUT ANY CONFIDENCE TO TOTALLY DROP MENTIONS OF IT.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL TAF SITES ALREADY VFR AS OF
0130 UTC WED. THE LAMP DOES HAVE A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT JST/AOO/UNV LATER TONIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS
WED, BUT OBS SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN A DRIER DIRECTION, SO
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDS IS ONLY IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE.
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ON WED WITH CLEAR SKIES OR VERY FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY
18Z. WINDS FROM THE E TO NE WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS, HIGHEST IN
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR FAVORED AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
BRING SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THOUGH -RA AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH OUR EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
WEEKEND (20 PCT CHC).
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL BEGAN TODAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026, AT 8:04PM
EDT. THIS MARKS THE TIME OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WHEN THE SUN IS
DIRECTLY ABOVE EARTH'S EQUATOR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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