889
FXUS61 KCTP 230512
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
112 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIG CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY
MAINLY EAST OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, GIVING WAY TO DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS STILL LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF PA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL
START TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LINGERING
SHRA OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WILL POSE NO HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. ANY -RA LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING COULD BE ENTIRELY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. WE'LL START TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY OR EVEN BEFORE THEN. WE ARE LEAVING IN THE
NBM 20 POPS FOR THE EAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PLACES E OF THE
SUSQ R WITHOUT ANY CONFIDENCE TO TOTALLY DROP MENTIONS OF IT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAMP DOES HAVE A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT JST/AOO/UNV LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WED, BUT OBS SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN A
DRIER DIRECTION, SO PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDS IS ONLY IN THE
30-50 PCT RANGE.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE (CEILING
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY) + E/NE FLOW REMAINING AT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT (FOG UNLIKELY). DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO NE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ONE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD
MAY BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (10-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
LAURELS (KJST/KAOO) LATER IN THE DAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 18-24Z, DUE
TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES DURING THE EVENING, THESE CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR.
THE OTHER EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY (KMDT/KLNS) AFTER ROUGHLY 06Z THURSDAY, WHERE NE FLOW MAY
BRING IN A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AT AROUND 925 MB AND RESULT
IN MVFR CEILINGS. NEVERTHELESS, VFR IS STILL FAVORED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THOSE SITES, WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR BEING
AROUND 10%.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR FAVORED AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
BRING SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THOUGH -RA AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH OUR EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
WEEKEND (20 PCT CHC).
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL BEGAN TODAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026, AT 8:04PM
EDT. THIS MARKS THE TIME OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WHEN THE SUN IS
DIRECTLY ABOVE EARTH'S EQUATOR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...TEARE/COLBERT/BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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