774
FXUS61 KCTP 230903
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE TODAY GIVE WAY TO DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. COASTAL STORM EFFECTS
STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE TODAY GIVE
WAY TO DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. COASTAL
STORM EFFECTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF PA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A COUPLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE.
ELSEWHERE, WE'LL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. WE'LL
START TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY OR EVEN
BEFORE THEN. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO PA AND EASTERN PA COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
(MAINLY EAST OF US-15). FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. WESTERN PA SHOULD SEE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND WHILE EASTERN PA MAY BE SHROUDED
IN MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAMP DOES HAVE A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT JST/AOO/UNV LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WED, BUT OBS SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN A
DRIER DIRECTION, SO PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDS IS ONLY IN THE
30-50 PCT RANGE.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE (CEILING
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY) + E/NE FLOW REMAINING AT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT (FOG UNLIKELY). DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO NE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ONE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD
MAY BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (10-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
LAURELS (KJST/KAOO) LATER IN THE DAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 18-24Z, DUE
TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES DURING THE EVENING, THESE CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR.
THE OTHER EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY (KMDT/KLNS) AFTER ROUGHLY 06Z THURSDAY, WHERE NE FLOW MAY
BRING IN A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AT AROUND 925 MB AND RESULT
IN MVFR CEILINGS. NEVERTHELESS, VFR IS STILL FAVORED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THOSE SITES, WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR BEING
AROUND 10%.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR FAVORED AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
BRING SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THOUGH -RA AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH OUR EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
WEEKEND (20 PCT CHC).
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL BEGAN TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026, AT 8:04PM
EDT. THIS MARKED THE TIME OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WHEN THE SUN
WAS DIRECTLY ABOVE EARTH'S EQUATOR. WE'LL LOSE NEARLY 3 HOURS OF
DAYLIGHT BETWEEN NOW AND THE WINTER SOLSTICE IN LATE DECEMBER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN/TEARE
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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