029
FXUS61 KCTP 231641
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MINOR WIND IMPACTS FROM
THE STRONG COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MINOR WIND
IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN (FOLLOWING ONE OF THE WETTEST
MID TO LATE SUMMER PATTERNS ON RECORD) IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA.
A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE NJ/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA (MAINLY EAST OF US-15) LATER THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE MAIN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE WIND.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
GUSTS 30-35 MPH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE STACKED COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND AND CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAMP DOES HAVE A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT JST/AOO/UNV LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WED, BUT OBS SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN A
DRIER DIRECTION, SO PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDS IS ONLY IN THE
30-50 PCT RANGE.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE (CEILING
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY) + E/NE FLOW REMAINING AT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT (FOG UNLIKELY). DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO NE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ONE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD
MAY BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (10-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
LAURELS (KJST/KAOO) LATER IN THE DAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 18-24Z, DUE
TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES DURING THE EVENING, THESE CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR.
THE OTHER EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY (KMDT/KLNS) AFTER ROUGHLY 06Z THURSDAY, WHERE NE FLOW MAY
BRING IN A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AT AROUND 925 MB AND RESULT
IN MVFR CEILINGS. NEVERTHELESS, VFR IS STILL FAVORED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THOSE SITES, WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR BEING
AROUND 10%.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR FAVORED AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
BRING SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THOUGH -RA AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH OUR EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
WEEKEND (20 PCT CHC).
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL BEGAN TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026, AT 8:04PM
EDT. THIS MARKED THE TIME OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WHEN THE SUN
WAS DIRECTLY ABOVE EARTH'S EQUATOR. WE'LL LOSE NEARLY 3 HOURS OF
DAYLIGHT BETWEEN NOW AND THE WINTER SOLSTICE IN LATE DECEMBER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN/TEARE
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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