210
FXUS61 KCTP 240459
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1259 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MINOR WIND IMPACTS FROM
THE STRONG COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MINOR WIND
IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN (FOLLOWING ONE OF THE WETTEST
MID TO LATE SUMMER PATTERNS ON RECORD) IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA.
A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE NJ/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA (MAINLY EAST OF US-15) LATER THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE MAIN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE WIND.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
GUSTS 30-35 MPH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE STACKED COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND AND CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. CEILING
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALSO BEING UNLIKELY FOR TONIGHT DUE TO E/NE FLOW
RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH ENOUGH ACROSS NW PA
THURSDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE VALLEY FOG, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
RESTRICTIONS TO KBFD, THOUGH VFR REMAINS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY DAYTIME WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MARGINAL LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR KLNS AND KMDT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-MON...VFR FAVORED AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
BRING SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, THOUGH -RA AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH OUR EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
WEEKEND (20 PCT CHC).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/TEARE/KRANTZ
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