478
FXUS61 KCTP 250534
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FROST ADVY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MCKEAN AND POTTER CO
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MINOR WIND IMPACTS FROM
NOR'EASTER THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH MINOR WIND
IMPACTS FROM NOR'EASTER THIS WEEKEND
ANOTHER CHILLY LATE SEPTEMBER NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALLEGHENIES WHERE PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. COORDINATED WITH PBZ AND LWX ON A FROST
ADVISORY FOR SOMERSET COUNTY. ADDED MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES
TO THE FROST ADVISORY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS ALREADY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT 8 PM, INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FROST LATER TONIGHT.
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN (FOLLOWING ONE OF THE WETTEST
MID TO LATE SUMMER PATTERNS ON RECORD) IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA.
A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING OFFSHORE NJ/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA (MAINLY EAST OF US-15) LATER THIS WEEKEND (20-40 POPS SAT,
40-60 POPS SUN). BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH MAX GUSTS 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE NOR'EASTER MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND AND CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT, THOUGH PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AT ANY TAF SITES IS
LOW, BUT A FEW HOURS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT IPT
AND POSSIBLY BFD AND UNV. A FEW HOURS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AT MDT AND LNS AS WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 35
TO 40 KNOTS.
FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THE MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES,
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AS THE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND THE DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT MDT AND LNS.
LLWS BECOMES A BIGGER CONCERN FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY AS A 45 TO 60 KNOT 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS THE NOR'EASTER DEEPENS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD.
WIND SHEAR WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT MDT AND LNS, WITH THE THREAT
MOVING NORTH AND WEST AFTER 06Z. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE JUST HOW FAR WEST THE
SURFACE LOW ENDS UP.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR AND PERIODS OF -RA POSSIBLE FAR EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.
MON-TUE...VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...BAUCO
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