407
FXUS61 KCTP 251753
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND POPS/QPF THIS WEEKEND
* STRATIFIED WX TO RAIN VS. RAIN SHOWERS
* LOWERED MAXT SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND INCREMENTALLY
BEARISH ON THE MARGIN PARTICULARLY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS EXTEND WESTWARD FROM POWERFUL
NOR'EASTER TRACKING TOWARD THE NJ/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED A MINOR INCREASE IN
WIND GUSTS AND WESTWARD EXPANSION OF HIGHER POPS/QPF TO THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
WILL SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS, WIND, AND RAIN. WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED/MINOR IMPACTS (SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE)
DUE TO THE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
IT'S STILL HARD TO SAY HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIP WILL REACH WITH
THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE AN EXTENDED DRY
STRETCH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE NOR'EASTER LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST, CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES POISED TO REBOUND ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. LOCALIZED VIS
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF VCFG AT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AIRFIELDS. LLWS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT ZNY SECTOR TONIGHT AS A 45-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THE WEST-SIDE OF POWERFUL NOR'EASTER.
RAIN COULD REACH KMDT/KLNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS/GUSTS FROM 330-030 DEGREES
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MAXING OUT AROUND 30KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TRENDING VFR BY MIDWEEK.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page