757
FXUS61 KCTP 260530
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND POPS/QPF THIS WEEKEND
* STRATIFIED WX TO RAIN VS. RAIN SHOWERS
* LOWERED MAXT SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND INCREMENTALLY
BEARISH ON THE MARGIN PARTICULARLY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS EXTEND WESTWARD FROM POWERFUL
NOR'EASTER TRACKING TOWARD THE NJ/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED A MINOR INCREASE IN
WIND GUSTS AND WESTWARD EXPANSION OF HIGHER POPS/QPF TO THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
WILL SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS, WIND, AND RAIN. WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED/MINOR IMPACTS (SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE)
DUE TO THE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
IT'S STILL HARD TO SAY HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIP WILL REACH WITH
THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE AN EXTENDED DRY
STRETCH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE NOR'EASTER LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST, CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES POISED TO REBOUND ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. LOCALIZED
VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITES IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
ZNY AIRSPACE TONIGHT AS A 45-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA ON THE WEST-SIDE OF A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER. SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE
AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT SOUTHEASTERN SITES. LIGHT RAIN WILL
APPROACH MDT AND LNS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THE THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY
REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
LLWS HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF MOST OF THE TAFS. AFTER A BREAK IN THE
RAIN DURING THE EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS
RAIN MAKES IT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR AT MDT AND LNS AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES
IN.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TRENDING VFR BY MIDWEEK.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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