490
FXUS61 KCTP 261857
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUED TO
INCREASE WIND GUST FORECAST.
* SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL ACROSS LANCASTER AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG NOR'EASTER (988 MB) OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE COUPLED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA GUSTS HAVE REMAINED LARGELY BELOW 30 MPH; HOWEVER,
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY GUSTED ABOVE THAT
THRESHOLD SUCH AS LANCASTER AIRPORT (KLNS), WHERE A 33 MPH WIND
GUST WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO OUTLINE A GENERAL TREND IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED LATER THIS EVENING AND AHEAD OF
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ERODE RAINFALL AS IT DIVED SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS TREND LIKELY
CONTINUES WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT JST/AOO/HMZ OUTLINING
30-40% RH VALUES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE SATURATION IS PROJECTED
BASED ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING.
AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, AN INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH GUSTS ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ESPECIALLY AREAS WITH MORE COMPLEX
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PUSH CLOSER TO 35-40 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS PUSHING CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN TERMS OF WIND
ADVISORIES, THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION ON HOISTING FLAGS FOR
SULLIVAN, SCHUYLKILL, LEBANON, AND LANCASTER COUNTIES; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME WITH NBM 24-HR MAX GUSTS
ONLY SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING CRITERIA. THAT BEING
SAID, WITH LEAVES REMAINING ON TREES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
TIME OF YEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE CLOSER TRACK OF
THE STORM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL; HOWEVER, NO FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRATIFORM NATURE OF THIS RAIN
AS STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL APPROACHES ONE INCH ACROSS SULLIVAN AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR'EASTER SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION, THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THESE LINGERING SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
FAIRLY HIGH (~70-80%) CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING
TREND IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TO
EMERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES; HOWEVER, MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE GAME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MDT/LNS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ERODING AWAY
PRECIPITATION AS IT APPROACHES ALL OF THE OTHER AIRFIELDS ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MDT/LNS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH ~22-23Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT, IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE MAJORITY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPING CEILINGS ABOVE VFR. THUS, HAVE PENCILED IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~60-70%) CONFIDENCE. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL DECREASE, WITH
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10KTS IN THE 00Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THESE WINDS
DECREASING, SOME LLWS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
THIS MORNING'S TAF PACKAGE DUE TO THE BULK OF THESE CONCERNS
COMING ABOVE 2,000 FT AGL.
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE NOR'EASTER CLOSER TO THE NJ
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR AND BELOW RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT MDT/LNS WHERE A
COUPLE-HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED IN
RECENT GLAMP GUIDANCE WITH NBM/HREF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING
THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO BETWEEN 15-18Z. ELSEWHERE, MVFR
LIKELY PREVAILS AS THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORY WITH JST/BFD
POTENTIALLY PREVAILING VFR AT WORST. THIS SYSTEM PLACEMENT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25KTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA; HOWEVER, BASED ON RECENT HREF/NBM GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FORECAST WITH MDT/LNS
PUSHING CLOSER TO 30KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...SOME SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AM; OTHERWISE, TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...BEATY
DISCUSSION...BEATY
AVIATION...BEATY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page