791
FXUS61 KCTP 270056
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
856 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY; STILL SUB-ADVISORY
* SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL ACROSS LANCASTER AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG NOR'EASTER (988 MB) OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE COUPLED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA GUSTS HAVE REMAINED LARGELY BELOW 30 MPH; HOWEVER,
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY GUSTED ABOVE THAT
THRESHOLD SUCH AS LANCASTER AIRPORT (KLNS), WHERE A 33 MPH WIND
GUST WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO OUTLINE A GENERAL TREND IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED LATER THIS EVENING AND AHEAD OF
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ERODE RAINFALL AS IT DIVED SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS TREND LIKELY
CONTINUES WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT JST/AOO/HMZ OUTLINING
30-40% RH VALUES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE SATURATION IS PROJECTED
BASED ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING.
AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, AN INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH GUSTS ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ESPECIALLY AREAS WITH MORE COMPLEX
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PUSH CLOSER TO 35-40 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS PUSHING CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN TERMS OF WIND
ADVISORIES, THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION ON HOISTING FLAGS FOR
SULLIVAN, SCHUYLKILL, LEBANON, AND LANCASTER COUNTIES; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME WITH NBM 24-HR MAX GUSTS
ONLY SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING CRITERIA. THAT BEING
SAID, WITH LEAVES REMAINING ON TREES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
TIME OF YEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE CLOSER TRACK OF
THE STORM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL; HOWEVER, NO FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRATIFORM NATURE OF THIS RAIN
AS STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL APPROACHES ONE INCH ACROSS SULLIVAN AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR'EASTER SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION, THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THESE LINGERING SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
FAIRLY HIGH (~70-80%) CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING
TREND IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TO
EMERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES; HOWEVER, MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE GAME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERNIGHT, IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE MAJORITY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPING
CEILINGS ABOVE VFR. THUS, HAVE PENCILED IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~60-70%) CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL DECREASE, WITH MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10KTS IN THE 00Z-10Z TIMEFRAME
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THESE WINDS DECREASING,
SOME LLWS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING'S TAF PACKAGE DUE TO THE BULK OF THESE CONCERNS COMING
ABOVE 2,000 FT AGL.
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 15Z WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE NOR'EASTER CLOSER TO THE NJ
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY SHOULD DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NEARLY EVERY AIRFIELD BY 00Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT AND THEREFORE COULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3 STATUTE MILES (CATEGORICAL IFR).
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ON SUNDAY, BUT THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN
SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS AND LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER SHOWERS
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE GIVE CONFIDENCE IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LOCATION OF THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20-25KTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY;
SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KMDT AND KLNS (UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE).
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...BEATY
DISCUSSION...BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BEATY
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