003
FXUS61 KCTP 270506
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
106 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY; STILL SUB-ADVISORY
* SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL ACROSS LANCASTER AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG NOR'EASTER (988 MB) OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE COUPLED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA GUSTS HAVE REMAINED LARGELY BELOW 30 MPH; HOWEVER,
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY GUSTED ABOVE THAT
THRESHOLD SUCH AS LANCASTER AIRPORT (KLNS), WHERE A 33 MPH WIND
GUST WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO OUTLINE A GENERAL TREND IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED LATER THIS EVENING AND AHEAD OF
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ERODE RAINFALL AS IT DIVED SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS TREND LIKELY
CONTINUES WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT JST/AOO/HMZ OUTLINING
30-40% RH VALUES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE SATURATION IS PROJECTED
BASED ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING.
AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, AN INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH GUSTS ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ESPECIALLY AREAS WITH MORE COMPLEX
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PUSH CLOSER TO 35-40 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS PUSHING CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN TERMS OF WIND
ADVISORIES, THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION ON HOISTING FLAGS FOR
SULLIVAN, SCHUYLKILL, LEBANON, AND LANCASTER COUNTIES; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME WITH NBM 24-HR MAX GUSTS
ONLY SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING CRITERIA. THAT BEING
SAID, WITH LEAVES REMAINING ON TREES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
TIME OF YEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE CLOSER TRACK OF
THE STORM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL; HOWEVER, NO FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRATIFORM NATURE OF THIS RAIN
AS STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL APPROACHES ONE INCH ACROSS SULLIVAN AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR'EASTER SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION, THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MONDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THESE LINGERING SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
FAIRLY HIGH (~70-80%) CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING
TREND IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TO
EMERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES; HOWEVER, MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE GAME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IT APPEARS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR MOST,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPING CEILINGS ABOVE VFR. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE LLWS AT EASTERN
TAF SITES AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WHILE
WINDS AT 2000 FEET REMAIN AROUND 40 KNOTS.
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 15Z WITH THE
THE NOR'EASTER CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL BRING A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NEARLY
EVERY AIRFIELD BY 00Z MONDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND THEREFORE COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING
BELOW 3 STATUTE MILES (CATEGORICAL IFR). THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS WILL LOWER, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER SHOWERS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE GIVE
CONFIDENCE IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LOCATION OF THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20-25KTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY;
SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KMDT AND KLNS (UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE).
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...BEATY
DISCUSSION...BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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