372
FXUS61 KCTP 270840
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MORE WIND ADVISORY THREAT.
* BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY.
* LOWERED DEWPOINTS (AGAIN) TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER FILLING AS IT SITS ALONG THE NJ COAST.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER FILLING AS IT SITS ALONG THE NJ COAST.
THE NOR-EASTER CENTER IS JUST OFF NJ AND WILL CIRCULATE BACK TO
THE SHORELINE BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST AND NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IT IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL AND WILL DO
SO VERY SLOWLY TODAY AND AS IT MOVES AWAY. THE WIND AND GUSTS
WILL START TO DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND
WILL DO SO EVEN MORE TONIGHT. THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER ANY OF OUR COUNTIES IS ALL BUT OVER. WE DID KNOCK A COUPLE
DEGS OFF THE DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AS THE NBM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. DESPITE THIS, THE
BANDS OF RAIN SHOULD GO FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN SAT - SO WE
BUMPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE CWA EAST OF ROUTE
219. THE RAIN MAY NOT QUITE REACH THE GROUND IN THE WESTERN
LAYER OF ZONES, BUT SOME HIT THE GROUND LOCALLY DESPITE THE
LOWER-THAN-FORECAST DEWPOINTS ON SAT. COOL AIR IS LOCKED IN, AND
MAXES WILL BE ONLY 55-65F - COOLEST NE.
QPF IS LOOKING HEAVIEST JUST ABOUT WHERE IT WAS ON SATURDAY -
THE LOWER SUSQ. SOMEONE MIGHT PICK UP ANOTHER INCH, BUT MOST
LIKELY NOT. EVEN SO, THE FFG IS HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FLOODING
EVEN BE A THOUGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BY NOON
MONDAY, THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED --SHRA OVER THE NE AND THE
WIND WILL NOT BE NOTABLE. TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FROM SUN, BUT WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
-----------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO BE ARRIVING LATE WED/NIGHT WILL BE DELAYED FOR A
DAY OR SO. IT WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
POLO. BUT, THAT PRECIP PROBABLY STAYS TO OUR W UNTIL THURSDAY. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING TREND IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AREA WIDE
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. SOMEONE MAY HIT 80F BEFORE FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ARE NOT EASY TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. SO, WE'LL JUST
MAKE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FRI-SAT-SUN.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IT APPEARS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR MOST,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPING CEILINGS ABOVE VFR. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE LLWS AT EASTERN
TAF SITES AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WHILE
WINDS AT 2000 FEET REMAIN AROUND 40 KNOTS.
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 15Z WITH THE
THE NOR'EASTER CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL BRING A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NEARLY
EVERY AIRFIELD BY 00Z MONDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND THEREFORE COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING
BELOW 3 STATUTE MILES (CATEGORICAL IFR). THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS WILL LOWER, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS
AND LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER SHOWERS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE GIVE
CONFIDENCE IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LOCATION OF THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20-25KTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY;
SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KMDT AND KLNS (UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE).
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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