865
FXUS61 KCTP 271040
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
640 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MORE WIND ADVISORY THREAT.
* BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY.
* LOWERED DEWPOINTS (AGAIN) TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER FILLING AS IT SITS ALONG THE NJ COAST.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER FILLING AS IT SITS ALONG THE NJ COAST.
THE NOR-EASTER CENTER IS JUST OFF NJ AND WILL CIRCULATE BACK TO
THE SHORELINE BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST AND NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IT IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL AND WILL DO
SO VERY SLOWLY TODAY AND AS IT MOVES AWAY. THE WIND AND GUSTS
WILL START TO DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND
WILL DO SO EVEN MORE TONIGHT. THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER ANY OF OUR COUNTIES IS ALL BUT OVER. WE DID KNOCK A COUPLE
DEGS OFF THE DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AS THE NBM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. DESPITE THIS, THE
BANDS OF RAIN SHOULD GO FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN SAT - SO WE
BUMPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE CWA EAST OF ROUTE
219. THE RAIN MAY NOT QUITE REACH THE GROUND IN THE WESTERN
LAYER OF ZONES, BUT SOME HIT THE GROUND LOCALLY DESPITE THE
LOWER-THAN-FORECAST DEWPOINTS ON SAT. COOL AIR IS LOCKED IN, AND
MAXES WILL BE ONLY 55-65F - COOLEST NE.
QPF IS LOOKING HEAVIEST JUST ABOUT WHERE IT WAS ON SATURDAY -
THE LOWER SUSQ. SOMEONE MIGHT PICK UP ANOTHER INCH, BUT MOST
LIKELY NOT. EVEN SO, THE FFG IS HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FLOODING
EVEN BE A THOUGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BY NOON
MONDAY, THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED --SHRA OVER THE NE AND THE
WIND WILL NOT BE NOTABLE. TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FROM SUN, BUT WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
-----------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO BE ARRIVING LATE WED/NIGHT WILL BE DELAYED FOR A
DAY OR SO. IT WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
POLO. BUT, THAT PRECIP PROBABLY STAYS TO OUR W UNTIL THURSDAY. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING TREND IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AREA WIDE
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. SOMEONE MAY HIT 80F BEFORE FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ARE NOT EASY TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. SO, WE'LL JUST
MAKE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FRI-SAT-SUN.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING, BRINGING A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO
MVFR NOT LONG AFTER RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
QUITE EFFICIENT AND THEREFORE COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES
DROPPING BELOW 3 STATUTE MILES (CATEGORICAL IFR). THE LOCATION
OF THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
20-25KTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY; SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KMDT AND KLNS (UP TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE).
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW LOW CEILINGS GET
DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
WHEN SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS AND LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER
SHOWERS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE GIVE CONFIDENCE IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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