654
FXUS61 KCTP 271550
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR TIMING MODIFICATIONS TO THE PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THAT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER FILLING AS ITS CENTER PUSHES INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER FILLING AS ITS CENTER PUSHES INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE NOR-EASTER IS RIGHT OVER KACY AND
WILL PUSH INLAND A BIT MORE BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER SOUTHERN NJ OR DELAWARE BAY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE CENTER
OF THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AGAIN MONDAY AND TRACK
SOUTH OF AND PARALLEL WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
A FEW DISTINCT VORT LOBES WERE PIVOTING TO THE WEST THIS MORNING
WITH ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SCENT MOUNTAINS BRINGING A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST N/S
RAIN BAND DRIFTING WWD ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
PREVIOUS...
THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL START TO DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND WILL DO SO EVEN MORE TONIGHT. THE LOOSENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR NEARING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ANY OF OUR COUNTIES IS ALL BUT OVER. WE
DID KNOCK A COUPLE DEGS OFF THE DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AS THE NBM
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. DESPITE
THIS, THE BANDS OF RAIN SHOULD GO FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN SAT -
SO WE BUMPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE CWA EAST
OF ROUTE 219. THE RAIN MAY NOT QUITE REACH THE GROUND IN THE
WESTERN LAYER OF ZONES, BUT SOME HIT THE GROUND LOCALLY DESPITE
THE LOWER-THAN-FORECAST DEWPOINTS ON SAT. COOL AIR IS LOCKED IN,
AND MAXES WILL BE ONLY 55-65F - COOLEST NE.
QPF IS LOOKING HEAVIEST JUST ABOUT WHERE IT WAS ON SATURDAY -
THE LOWER SUSQ. SOMEONE MIGHT PICK UP ANOTHER INCH, BUT MOST
LIKELY NOT. EVEN SO, THE FFG IS HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FLOODING
EVEN BE A THOUGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BY NOON
MONDAY, THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED --SHRA OVER THE NE AND THE
WIND WILL NOT BE NOTABLE. TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FROM SUN, BUT WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO BE ARRIVING LATE WED/NIGHT WILL BE DELAYED FOR A
DAY OR SO. IT WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
POLO. BUT, THAT PRECIP PROBABLY STAYS TO OUR W UNTIL THURSDAY. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING TREND IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AREA WIDE
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. SOMEONE MAY HIT 80F BEFORE FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ARE NOT EASY TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. SO, WE'LL JUST
MAKE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FRI-SAT-SUN.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH BANDS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WWD ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND CENTRAL
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR NOT LONG AFTER RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT AND THEREFORE COULD
RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3 STATUTE MILES
(CATEGORICAL IFR). THE LOCATION OF THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25KTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY; SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT
KMDT AND KLNS (UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE).
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW LOW CEILINGS GET
DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
WHEN SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS AND LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER
SHOWERS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE GIVE CONFIDENCE IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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