201
FXUS61 KCTP 271920
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
320 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR TIMING MODIFICATIONS TO THE PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THAT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER FILLING AS ITS CENTER PUSHES INLAND MEANDERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER FILLING AS ITS CENTER PUSHES INLAND
MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE NOR-EASTER IS LOCATED BETWEEN KACY AND KMIV
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST A BOT MORE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NJ OR DELAWARE BAY LATER TONIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AGAIN MONDAY AND
TRACK SOUTH OF AND PARALLEL WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND.
ONE DISTINCT VORT LOBE WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS MORE OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TO THE WEST OF A KHGR TO KIPT AND
KELM LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A SECOND AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING
JUST NW OF THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE WESTERN
POCONOS AND SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING AND FALL OFF AND ON AS
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN
INCH EXPECTED.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE (WITH RESPECT TO LESS RAIN) TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. BY NOON MONDAY, THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED
--SHRA OVER THE NE AND THE WIND WILL NOT BE NOTABLE. TEMPS RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM SUN, BUT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO BE ARRIVING LATE WED/NIGHT WILL BE DELAYED FOR A
DAY OR SO. IT WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
POLO. BUT, THAT PRECIP PROBABLY STAYS TO OUR W UNTIL THURSDAY. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING TREND IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AREA WIDE
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. SOMEONE MAY HIT 80F BEFORE FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ARE NOT EASY TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. SO, WE'LL JUST
MAKE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FRI-SAT-SUN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH BANDS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS OF
PA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN DRIFTING
INTO THE WESTERN POCONOS AND LOWER/MID SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MVFR
TRANSITIONING INTO IFR AFTER DUOF THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL
START TO DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND WILL DO
SO EVEN MORE TONIGHT. THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN
THAT THE THREAT FOR NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ANY OF
OUR COUNTIES IS ALL BUT OVER. WE DID KNOCK A COUPLE DEGS OFF THE
DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AS THE NBM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH
OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. DESPITE THIS, THE BANDS OF RAIN SHOULD
GO FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN SAT - SO WE BUMPED THE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE CWA EAST OF ROUTE 219. THE RAIN MAY
NOT QUITE REACH THE GROUND IN THE WESTERN LAYER OF ZONES, BUT
SOME HIT THE GROUND LOCALLY DESPITE THE LOWER-THAN-FORECAST
DEWPOINTS ON SAT. COOL AIR IS LOCKED IN, AND MAXES WILL BE ONLY
55-65F - COOLEST NE.
QPF IS LOOKING HEAVIEST JUST ABOUT WHERE IT WAS ON SATURDAY -
THE LOWER SUSQ. SOMEONE MIGHT PICK UP ANOTHER INCH, BUT MOST
LIKELY NOT. EVEN SO, THE FFG IS HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FLOODING
EVEN BE A THOUGHT. SK TONIGHT AND EVEN SOME PERIODS
OF LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MVFR TO OCNL IFR RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT AND
COULD LEAD TO VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 3 STATUTE MILES (CATEGORICAL
IFR).
THE LOCATION OF THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SUSQ VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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