258
FXUS61 KCTP 280527
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
127 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR TIMING MODIFICATIONS TO THE PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THAT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER FILLING AS ITS CENTER PUSHES INLAND MEANDERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER FILLING AS ITS CENTER PUSHES INLAND
MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE NOR-EASTER IS LOCATED BETWEEN KACY AND KMIV
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST A BOT MORE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NJ OR DELAWARE BAY LATER TONIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AGAIN MONDAY AND
TRACK SOUTH OF AND PARALLEL WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND.
ONE DISTINCT VORT LOBE WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS MORE OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TO THE WEST OF A KHGR TO KIPT AND
KELM LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A SECOND AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING
JUST NW OF THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE WESTERN
POCONOS AND SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING AND FALL OFF AND ON AS
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN
INCH EXPECTED.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE (WITH RESPECT TO LESS RAIN) TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. BY NOON MONDAY, THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED
--SHRA OVER THE NE AND THE WIND WILL NOT BE NOTABLE. TEMPS RISE
SLIGHTLY FROM SUN, BUT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EMERGING ACROSS THE
REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO BE ARRIVING LATE WED/NIGHT WILL BE DELAYED FOR A
DAY OR SO. IT WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
POLO. BUT, THAT PRECIP PROBABLY STAYS TO OUR W UNTIL THURSDAY. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A WARMING TREND IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AREA WIDE
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. SOMEONE MAY HIT 80F BEFORE FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL ARE NOT EASY TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS RANGE AND WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. SO, WE'LL JUST
MAKE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FRI-SAT-SUN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE BEST EXPLAINED THROUGH THE LENS OF WIND DIRECTION.
OVERNIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF A NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED BFD
AND JST, WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN MVFR OR VFR. MVFR IS
FAVORED AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, BUT A FEW
DROPS TO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS
INTO MONDAY AS THE NOR'EASTER LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE
COD. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, DOWNSLOPE WINDS
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL PROMOTE RISING CEILINGS. WHILE
CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, WE SHOULD
SEE VFR RETURN TO MDT AND LNS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AND IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
MDT AND LNS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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