010
FXUS61 KCTP 280627
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED SKY COVER NEXT 36 HRS
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY TODAY, LEADING TO A WARMER THAN NORMAL
BUT OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY TODAY, LEADING TO A DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOW TO OUR EAST IS ALREADY FILLING NICELY, LEADING TO A BIG
REDUCTION IN WIND/GUSTS. SOME PLACES MAY GO CALM BY MORNING BUT
RETURN TO 5-10MPH WITH NO SIG GUSTS IN THE FORE-NOON. CLOUDS
WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TODAY AND SHOULD ONLY START TO BREAK
SLOWLY, WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING CLOUDY TONIGHT AND TUES AM.
BUT, THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER A BIG SFC HIGH WILL HELP US IMPROVE ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 60S TODAY. WITH THE CLOUDS STILL
HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TEMPS WON'T FALL MORE THAN
10-12F THRU THE NIGHT. WE'LL ADD 5-6F TO THE MAXES FOR TUES AND
ADD A FEW DEGS MORE WED AND THURS, TOO. THE DEWPOINTS DO INCH UP
EACH DAY, TOO, AND WILL BE 55-65F ON THURS AS MAXES GET TO
75-85F. PRETTY SUMMER-LIKE. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH FOG
TONIGHT/TUES AM, BUT THE SKY SHOULD BE MORE- CLEAR THAN CLOUDY
TUES PM AND WED AM. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, SLOWING A
BIT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURS PM AND FRI. NBM POPS
(60S NW, 30S SE) MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE HIGH. BUT, AT THIS
RANGE, IT'S PROBABLY NOT WORTH TRYING TO TWEAK THEM. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FRONT WILL THEN GET HUNG UP AND STRETCH WEST TO EAST
OVER VA. AT THAT POINT, A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF POLO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE OLD FRONT AND LIKELY BRING RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE BEST EXPLAINED THROUGH THE LENS OF WIND DIRECTION.
OVERNIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF A NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED BFD
AND JST, WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN MVFR OR VFR. MVFR IS
FAVORED AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, BUT A FEW
DROPS TO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS
INTO MONDAY AS THE NOR'EASTER LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE
COD. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, DOWNSLOPE WINDS
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL PROMOTE RISING CEILINGS. WHILE
CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, WE SHOULD
SEE VFR RETURN TO MDT AND LNS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AND IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
MDT AND LNS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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