000
FXUS61 KCTP 281029
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED SKY COVER NEXT 36 HRS
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY TODAY, LEADING TO A WARMER THAN NORMAL
BUT OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY TODAY, LEADING TO A DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOW TO OUR EAST IS ALREADY FILLING NICELY, LEADING TO A BIG
REDUCTION IN WIND/GUSTS. SOME PLACES MAY GO CALM BY MORNING BUT
RETURN TO 5-10MPH WITH NO SIG GUSTS IN THE FORE-NOON. CLOUDS
WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TODAY AND SHOULD ONLY START TO BREAK
SLOWLY, WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING CLOUDY TONIGHT AND TUES AM.
BUT, THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER A BIG SFC HIGH WILL HELP US IMPROVE ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 60S TODAY. WITH THE CLOUDS STILL
HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TEMPS WON'T FALL MORE THAN
10-12F THRU THE NIGHT. WE'LL ADD 5-6F TO THE MAXES FOR TUES AND
ADD A FEW DEGS MORE WED AND THURS, TOO. THE DEWPOINTS DO INCH UP
EACH DAY, TOO, AND WILL BE 55-65F ON THURS AS MAXES GET TO
75-85F. PRETTY SUMMER-LIKE. PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH FOG
TONIGHT/TUES AM, BUT THE SKY SHOULD BE MORE- CLEAR THAN CLOUDY
TUES PM AND WED AM. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, SLOWING A
BIT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURS PM AND FRI. NBM POPS
(60S NW, 30S SE) MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE HIGH. BUT, AT THIS
RANGE, IT'S PROBABLY NOT WORTH TRYING TO TWEAK THEM. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FRONT WILL THEN GET HUNG UP AND STRETCH WEST TO EAST
OVER VA. AT THAT POINT, A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF POLO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE OLD FRONT AND LIKELY BRING RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIFR CEILINGS AT BFD AND JST WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WHILE
ALL OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR. A SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AS THE NOR'EASTER
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS, DOWNSLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL
PROMOTE RISING CEILINGS. WHILE CEILINGS LIKELY STAY MVFR FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, WE SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN TO MDT AND LNS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AND IFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MDT AND LNS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, MVFR LINGERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(BFD, JST) IN A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WED...SUNSHINE RETURNS, MOSTLY VFR.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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