063
FXUS61 KCTP 290522
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF AND PARALLEL
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST, LEADING TO A DRY AND WARMER
THAN NORMAL STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF
AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST, LEADING TO A
DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE CENTER OF THE NOR'EASTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM S OF THE
EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND (KMTP) MOVING GRADUALLY ENE.
THE LOW IS ALSO SLOWLY FILLING, LEADING TO MUCH LIGHTER
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQ VALLEY WITH
SOME MINOR GUSTS INTO THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WIDESPREAD, THICK STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
CWA TODAY WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON BREAKS POSSIBLE IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND ADJACENT SE PA. NEAR 100 PCT
SKY COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK SLOWLY OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE SO ON
TUESDAY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS NE FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS TODAY,
THOUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WON'T ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BY MORE THAN 10-12F THRU THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY'S MAXES WILL BE 5-6F WARMER THAN TODAY AND READINGS FOR
WED AND THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER FEW DEG F HIGHER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCH UP EACH DAY, TOO, AND WILL BE 55-65F ON THURS AS MAXES GET
TO 75-85F. PRETTY SUMMER-LIKE.
VALLEY FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AM, BUT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO PATCHY/AREAS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PA. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SKY
COVER IMPROVES TO 50-60 PERCENT.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, SLOWING A
BIT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURS PM AND FRI. NBM POPS
(60S NW, 30S SE) MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE HIGH. BUT, AT THIS
RANGE, IT'S PROBABLY NOT WORTH TRYING TO TWEAK THEM. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FRONT WILL THEN GET HUNG UP AND STRETCH WEST TO EAST
OVER VA. AT THAT POINT, A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF POLO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE OLD FRONT AND LIKELY BRING RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE RETREATING NOR'EASTER WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SPRAWLING CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES.
EXPECT A 1 CATEGORY DROP ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT WITH IFR AT
BFD AND JST DROPPING TO LIFR, AOO, UNV, AND IPT DROPPING FROM
MVFR TO IFR, AND LNS AND MDT DROPPING FROM VFR TO MVFR. THE
LOWEST CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 06 AND 13Z
WITH IMPROVEMENT AREAWIDE THEREAFTER. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST
PLACES BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR MAY LINGER AT BFD AND JST.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD PROMOTE FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SOME GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MORNING FOG; THEN SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
SAT...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS, RAIN/LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTH,
BRIGHTER/LESS RESTRICTIONS NORTH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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