918
FXUS61 KCTP 291450
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NOTICEABLE WARMUP TO END
SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER
2) COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NOTICEABLE
WARMUP TO END SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER
850-700 MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING WILL BE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE CLOUD DEPTH TO
BE CUT NEARLY IN HALF WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AND
MAX TEMPS +5-10 DEGREES WARMER VS. MONDAY IN THE 65-75F RANGE.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG FORMATION WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A CONTINUE WARMUP WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 75-85F RANGE OR +10-15
DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL NORMAL FOR THE END OF
SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.
FOR CONTEXT, THE AVERAGE LAST DATE OF MAX TEMP >=80F IS 9/27 AT
STATE COLLEGE, 9/29 AT ALTOONA, 10/2 AT WILLIAMSPORT AND 10/5
AT HARRISBURG.
NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
---------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
24HR MAXT CHANGE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
BE 10-15 DEGREES LOWER VS. FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S/70S.
TRAILING FRONTAL WAVE COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
ON SUNDAY BASED ON WPC/NBM QPF - ALTHOUGH EC/CMC AND (TO LESSER
EXTENT) LEAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL OFF AND DROP
NEAR OR BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROST
POTENTIAL IS ON THE TABLE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JST, WHERE THEY ARE STILL LIFR IN
FOG. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THEY DAY AND VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES BY LATE AFTERNOON. BFD AND JST
WILL LIKELY BE LAST TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS SHOULD PROMOTE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MORNING FOG; THEN SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
SAT...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS, RAIN/LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTH,
BRIGHTER/LESS RESTRICTIONS NORTH.
CLIMATE
SOGGY SEPTEMBER SOAKER...
SEPTEMBER 2026 (MTD) PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
IPT: 11TH WETTEST (6.84")
MDT: 26TH WETTEST (4.72")
AOO: 9TH WETTEST (5.58")
BFD: 10TH WETTEST (4.85")
JST: 3RD WETTEST (7.31") *SINCE 2000
STC: 6TH WETTEST (7.90")
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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