751
FXUS61 KCTP 291757
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NOTICEABLE WARMUP TO END
SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER
2) COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NOTICEABLE
WARMUP TO END SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER
850-700 MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING WILL BE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE CLOUD DEPTH TO
BE CUT NEARLY IN HALF WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AND
MAX TEMPS +5-10 DEGREES WARMER VS. MONDAY IN THE 65-75F RANGE.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG FORMATION WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A CONTINUE WARMUP WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 75-85F RANGE OR +10-15
DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL NORMAL FOR THE END OF
SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.
FOR CONTEXT, THE AVERAGE LAST DATE OF MAX TEMP >=80F IS 9/27 AT
STATE COLLEGE, 9/29 AT ALTOONA, 10/2 AT WILLIAMSPORT AND 10/5
AT HARRISBURG.
NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
---------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
24HR MAXT CHANGE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
BE 10-15 DEGREES LOWER VS. FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S/70S.
TRAILING FRONTAL WAVE COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
ON SUNDAY BASED ON WPC/NBM QPF - ALTHOUGH EC/CMC AND (TO LESSER
EXTENT) LEAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL OFF AND DROP
NEAR OR BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROST
POTENTIAL IS ON THE TABLE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LNS AND MDT
WHERE THEY ARE IN VFR. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOULD PROMOTE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER FOG PROBABILITIES AT
MDT AND LNS.
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO QUICKER CLOUD EROSION THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LOWER FOG CHANCES.
FOR AREAS THAT SEE FOG, IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. BFD, UNV, AND
IPT MAY ADDITIONALLY SEE A PERIOD OF VLIFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO
SUNRISE DUE TO AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MOST RECENT RAP
SOUNDINGS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AFTER SUNRISE, FOG WILL MIX OUT
QUICKLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
SAT-SUN...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS, RAIN/LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTH,
BRIGHTER/LESS RESTRICTIONS NORTH.
CLIMATE
SOGGY SEPTEMBER SOAKER...
SEPTEMBER 2026 (MTD) PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
IPT: 11TH WETTEST (6.84")
MDT: 26TH WETTEST (4.72")
AOO: 9TH WETTEST (5.58")
BFD: 10TH WETTEST (4.85")
JST: 3RD WETTEST (7.31") *SINCE 2000
STC: 6TH WETTEST (7.90")
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY/KRANTZ
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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