667
FXUS61 KCTP 292245
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* BUMPED UP SKY COVER MANY PLACES, ESPECIALLY NEXT 6-9 HRS, AND
ADJUSTED TEMPS/FOG COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUD COVER A REAL CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT, AND WILL HAVE
A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPS AND FOG FORMATION.
2) NOTICEABLE WARMUP AND SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS TO END
SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER
3) COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLOUD COVER A REAL CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
AND WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPS AND FOG FORMATION.
SATELLITE OBS AND METARS SHOW THE FEW BREAKS OF THIS AFTN HAVE
CLOSED UP. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING OVER WARREN COUNTY IS REAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIG DISCREPANCY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AT T=0 AND
WHAT'S ON THE SAT IMAGES. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON
THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF CLEARING TONIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
CLEARING, MAINLY WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST AND THE RH
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NUMBERS HIGHEST LATER TONIGHT (NE). VERY
TOUGH FORECAST. MAV/MET MOS STILL PAINTS A VERY CLOUDY AND FOGGY
PICTURE AT JST AND FOGGINESS AT BFD LATER TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST
WIND WILL GET LIGHTER SOON, BUT THE UPSLOPE INTO JST WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE IS USUALLY A STRONG SIGN OF POOR VISBY/LOW
CIGS THERE. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALMOST EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. BUT, THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF THE FOG IS HIGHLY
DEBATEABLE. DOESN'T HURT TO MENTION IT, BUT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS USUALLY MORE IMPACTFUL TO AVIATION THAN THE GENERAL
WX GRIDS/FORECASTS.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOTICEABLE WARMUP AND SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
CONDITIONS TO END SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER
A WARMUP WILL LAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 75-85F RANGE OR +10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.
FOR CONTEXT, THE AVERAGE LAST DATE OF MAX TEMP >=80F IS 9/27 AT
STATE COLLEGE, 9/29 AT ALTOONA, 10/2 AT WILLIAMSPORT AND 10/5
AT HARRISBURG.
A SMALL CHANCE FOR --RA/SHRA IS HERE FOR LATER WED NIGHT AND
THURS AM AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT (MAINLY AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE) PASSES OVERHEAD. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL PROBABLY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO DROP THE CLOUDS LOW ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN TO HIT THE GROUND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR NW. BUT, SOME SPRINKLES COULD GET
DOWN JUST SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND SUNRISE THURS.
SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
-------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 3: COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
24HR MAXT CHANGE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
BE 10-15 DEGREES LOWER VS. FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S/70S.
TRAILING FRONTAL WAVE COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
ON SUNDAY BASED ON WPC/NBM QPF - ALTHOUGH EC/CMC AND (TO LESSER
EXTENT) LEAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL OFF AND DROP
NEAR OR BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROST
POTENTIAL IS ON THE TABLE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LNS AND MDT
WHERE THEY ARE IN VFR. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOULD PROMOTE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER FOG PROBABILITIES AT
MDT AND LNS.
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO QUICKER CLOUD EROSION THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LOWER FOG CHANCES.
FOR AREAS THAT SEE FOG, IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. BFD, UNV, AND
IPT MAY ADDITIONALLY SEE A PERIOD OF VLIFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO
SUNRISE DUE TO AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MOST RECENT RAP
SOUNDINGS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AFTER SUNRISE, FOG WILL MIX OUT
QUICKLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE PM, SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...COLD FROPA WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
SAT-SUN...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS, RAIN/LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTH,
BRIGHTER/LESS RESTRICTIONS NORTH.
CLIMATE
SOGGY SEPTEMBER SOAKER...
SEPTEMBER 2026 (MTD) PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
IPT: 11TH WETTEST (6.84")
MDT: 26TH WETTEST (4.72")
AOO: 9TH WETTEST (5.58")
BFD: 10TH WETTEST (4.85")
JST: 3RD WETTEST (7.31") *SINCE 2000
STC: 6TH WETTEST (7.90")
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY/KRANTZ
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page