671
FXUS61 KCTP 180038
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING
BANDS OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CLOUDS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL SET UP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 25-30
DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR MCKEAN COUNTY WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED. THE OVERNIGHT FROST/FREEZE
RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CPA INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
ADDITIONAL HEADLINE ISSUANCES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE AFTER TONIGHT'S FREEZE.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IN CPA SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS TO THE COAST, BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE
SEASONABLY WARM DAYS, CHILLY NIGHTS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION AND WILL STAY LOCKED
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD VFR IN GENERALLY SKC AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF PATCHY BR OR VCFG OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN, LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR KBFD AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GOOD VFR INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STALLED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
FOR SUNRISE DEPARTURES, EXPECT FROST TO FORM ON AIRCRAFT
SURFACES ON OUTDOOR PARKED REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK.
MON-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE WITH AM FROST LIKELY;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES SET AT ALTOONA
YESTERDAY 10/16. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 81 SET IN 1962.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004-006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/BEATY
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