372
FXUS61 KCTP 180507
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
107 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LOWER MINS A LITTLE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING
930 PM UPDATE...
WE TOOK A COUPLE DEGS OFF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS FOR
OVERNIGHT. BFD, SEG AND THV ARE DOING WHAT THEY DO...DROPPING
FAST. IT'S REAL. THEY JUST RADIATE EFFICIENTLY AND GET A COLD
POOL IN THEIR RESPECTIVE LOCAL LOW SPOTS. THIS MAKES IT EASIER
TO JUSTIFY - AND PERHAPS VERIFY - THE FREEZE WARNING. WE SHALL
SEE BY 8 AM.
PREVIOUS...
BANDS OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CLOUDS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL SET UP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 25-30
DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR MCKEAN COUNTY WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED. THE OVERNIGHT FROST/FREEZE
RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CPA INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
ADDITIONAL HEADLINE ISSUANCES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE AFTER TONIGHT'S FREEZE.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IN CPA SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS TO THE COAST, BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE
SEASONABLY WARM DAYS, CHILLY NIGHTS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO A VIRTUALLY CERTAIN
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND WIND GENERALLY
UNDER 5KT WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH VERY
HIGH (> 90%) CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION-
RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE OUTSIDE (<
20%) CHANCE FOR VCFG AT BFD GIVEN VALLEY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP
ON NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AS OF 05Z. GENERAL THINKING IS THAT
FOG WILL MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO BFD IN THE 09-11Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE RAPIDLY MIXING OUT IN THE 12-13Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS AT THE AIRFIELD.
MON-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE WITH AM FROST LIKELY;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...BEATY
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