356
FXUS61 KCTP 180706
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ENDS GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME AREAS
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ENDS GROWING
SEASON FOR SOME AREAS
KEYSTONE MESONET OBS AT 3AM/7Z ARE GENERALLY BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES (ALONG AND NW
OF I99 AND I80). WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING, EXPECT MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK TO BOTTOM IN THE
25-30F RANGE. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE TO END THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME AREAS. ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON STAYS ACTIVE.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLY WEATHER THIS WEEK. SOME
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE PROTRACTED, CONSECUTIVE DAY DRY SPELL
COULD LAST INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A STRING OF SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
FOLLOWED BY CHILLY NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO A VIRTUALLY CERTAIN
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND WIND GENERALLY
UNDER 5KT WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH VERY
HIGH (> 90%) CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION-
RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE OUTSIDE (<
20%) CHANCE FOR VCFG AT BFD GIVEN VALLEY FOG ALREADY SHOWING UP
ON NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AS OF 05Z. GENERAL THINKING IS THAT
FOG WILL MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TO BFD IN THE 09-11Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE RAPIDLY MIXING OUT IN THE 12-13Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS AT THE AIRFIELD.
MON-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE WITH AM FROST LIKELY;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
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