000
FXUS61 KCTP 181037
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
637 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ENDS GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME AREAS
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ENDS GROWING
SEASON FOR SOME AREAS
KEYSTONE MESONET OBS AT 3AM/7Z ARE GENERALLY BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES (ALONG AND NW
OF I99 AND I80). WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING, EXPECT MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK TO BOTTOM IN THE
25-30F RANGE. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE TO END THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME AREAS. ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON STAYS ACTIVE.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLY WEATHER THIS WEEK. SOME
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE PROTRACTED, CONSECUTIVE DAY DRY SPELL
COULD LAST INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A STRING OF SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
FOLLOWED BY CHILLY NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WITH MOST RECENT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS OUTLINING FOG CLOSEST TO IPT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS WERE BRIEFLY OBSERVED AT IPT; HOWEVER, GENERAL
THINKING IS LOWER CEILINGS WILL FILTER OUT RIGHT AROUND 12Z,
MAYBE SLIGHTLY AFTER WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPLYING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD FROST THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN AT ALL AIRFIELDS WITH RENEWED CHANCES MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT AND A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL
SET-UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HAVE WENT AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHTED
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOWER CEILINGS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IPT
BETWEEN 10-12Z MONDAY; HOWEVER, LOWER (20-30%) CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS GETTING TO THE AIRFIELD AT THIS TIME.
MON-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE WITH AM FROST LIKELY;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
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