721
FXUS61 KCTP 181753
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR YORK COUNTY AND A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
REMAINS ACTIVE.
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING HAVE
RESULTED IN THE GROWING SEASON COMING TO AN END FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL PA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YORK, LANCASTER, AND LEBANON
COUNTIES. ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
LIKELY SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 25. OUT OF THE ZONES
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE, YORK COUNTY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SO WE HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THEM. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES AS WELL. WHILE THOSE COUNTIES
MAY HAVE SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING,
LOWS IN THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE APPEAR MORE LIKELY.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SOME
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE DRY SPELL COULD LAST INTO THE FINAL
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRING OF
SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOW
HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY CHILLY NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND PATCHY
VALLEY FOG INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN AREA COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVELS. PROB OF IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT IPT BETWEEN 10-13Z
MONDAY STANDS AT 30%. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, N TO NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A
COASTAL STORM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE SAME STORM SYSTEM MAY ALSO
PRODUCE THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AIRFIELDS LATER MONDAY.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AM DUE TO
FOG AND LOW STRATUS. BREEZY WITH N TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
WED-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ059-066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ065.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...COLBERT
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