346
FXUS61 KCTP 190551
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE PM UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
REMAINS ACTIVE.
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
945 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MINS LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARE 5-10F HIGHER THAN
LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS IN THE SE ARE MORE ON-PACE WITH
LAST NIGHT WHICH BODES WELL FOR THE SE WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
FLAGS ARE FLYING AND THE FORECAST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT AND WORKED OUT WELL.
PREVIOUS...
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING HAVE
RESULTED IN THE GROWING SEASON COMING TO AN END FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL PA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YORK, LANCASTER, AND LEBANON
COUNTIES. ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS
LIKELY SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 25. OUT OF THE ZONES
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE, YORK COUNTY WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SO WE HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THEM. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES AS WELL. WHILE THOSE COUNTIES
MAY HAVE SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING,
LOWS IN THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE APPEAR MORE LIKELY.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SOME
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE DRY SPELL COULD LAST INTO THE FINAL
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRING OF
SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOW
HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY CHILLY NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GOOD VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
AREA FOR ANOTHER FORECAST DAY. OVERNIGHT, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND
PATCHY VALLEY FOG INTO MONDAY MORNING. RECENT HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AND POINTS EASTWARD
WITH A SECONDARY CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
WHERE FOG FORMATION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. PROBABILITY
OF IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT IPT BETWEEN 10-13Z MONDAY
STANDS AT 30% WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES NEAR MDT/LNS; THUS, HAVE
LEFT ALL MENTIONS OUT AT THE JUNCTURE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL STORM
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE SAME STORM SYSTEM MAY ALSO PRODUCE
THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AIRFIELDS LATER MONDAY; HOWEVER,
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE CLOUDS MIGHT STAY JUST EAST
OF THE REGION.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AM
DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS. BREEZY WITH N TO NE WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 KTS.
WED-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ059-066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ065.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BAUCO
AVIATION...BEATY/TYBURSKI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page