751
FXUS61 KCTP 190703
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
303 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THE DRY SPELL CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN-FREE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRING
OF SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR AND CHILLY MOONLIT NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GOOD VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
AREA FOR ANOTHER FORECAST DAY. OVERNIGHT, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND
PATCHY VALLEY FOG INTO MONDAY MORNING. RECENT HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AND POINTS EASTWARD
WITH A SECONDARY CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
WHERE FOG FORMATION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. PROBABILITY
OF IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT IPT BETWEEN 10-13Z MONDAY
STANDS AT 30% WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES NEAR MDT/LNS; THUS, HAVE
LEFT ALL MENTIONS OUT AT THE JUNCTURE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL STORM
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE SAME STORM SYSTEM MAY ALSO PRODUCE
THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AIRFIELDS LATER MONDAY; HOWEVER,
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE CLOUDS MIGHT STAY JUST EAST
OF THE REGION.
TUE...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AM
DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS. BREEZY WITH N TO NE WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 KTS.
WED-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ059-066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ065.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY/TYBURSKI
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