884
FXUS61 KCTP 191818
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE BEEN, BUT
WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, BUT NOT
IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THE DRY SPELL CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN-FREE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRING
OF SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR AND CHILLY MOONLIT NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A HANDFUL OF MODELS SHOW NORTHERLY FLOW CARRYING HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG OR LOW STRATUS AT BFD IN THE 08-13Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR OUTRIGHT INCLUSION OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACH.
AS A COASTAL STORM CRAWLS SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING N TO NE FLOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY FIRST SET UP A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE EASTERN
AIRFIELDS (IPT, LNS, MDT) LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A STABLE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER, AND WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE INTO THE 30-35 KT
RANGE. AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING ON TUESDAY, THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GIVE WAY TO DEEPER MIXING RESULTING IN
WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS.
WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...COLBERT
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