485
FXUS61 KCTP 200222
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEK
10 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING OVER THE NW FROM MID-AFTERNOON DEPTHS.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS, BUT THE DRYNESS OF
THE AIRMASS DOES ARGUE AGAINST IT. WITHOUT REAL SUPPORT TO
REMOVE THE SMALL MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS, WE'LL JUST
KEEP IT IN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE
AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE BEEN, BUT
WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, BUT
NOT IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE. THE
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THE DRY SPELL CONTINUING INTO THE FINAL
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN- FREE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRING
OF SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR AND CHILLY MOONLIT NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME VCFG AND SCT LOWER CLOUDS AT BFD, BUT EVEN
THERE MOST IF NOT ALL THE TIME TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR, GIVEN HOW
LOW THE DEWPOINTS ARE LATE THIS AFT.
AS A COASTAL STORM CRAWLS SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING N TO NE FLOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY FIRST SET UP A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE EASTERN
AIRFIELDS (IPT, LNS, MDT) LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A STABLE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER, AND WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE INTO THE 30-35 KT
RANGE. AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING ON TUESDAY, THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GIVE WAY TO DEEPER MIXING RESULTING IN
WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS.
WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...COLBERT/MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page