049
FXUS61 KCTP 201053
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
330 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WERE
HELPING TO GREATLY MINIMIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG SO FAR
EARLY TODAY.
ASIDE FROM AN ILL-DEFINED, WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE FROM THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SHALLOW SCT-BKN
STRATO CU (TOPPED BY SOME AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS) ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS MORNING, SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PA TO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WHERE LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES
ARE STILL HANGING ONTO THE GROWING SEASON BASED ON THE ABSENCE
OF WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SO FAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY IN MOST PLACES WITH MID
AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN PA TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRY SPELL
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN- FREE
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRING OF SUNNY AND SEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR AND CHILLY
MOONLIT NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND (IN THE
20S - MPH) ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ARE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA'S AIRFIELDS. WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL STORM OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NORTHWARD. THE GENERAL
TREND WILL BE INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS/GUSTS PEAKING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, WHILE SOME OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
(HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT MDT/LNS) WILL TOP OUT CLOSER TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS SHOWN FAIR
SKILL IN HONING IN *WHERE* FOG WILL FORM THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS) HAS STARTED TO OUTLINE THE NORTHERN TIER FOR SOME CHANCES
OF FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES (IFR AND BELOW) TO THE
NORTHERN AIRFIELDS (BFD/IPT/UNV) IN THAT TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW (~20-30%) FOR INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE,
BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN FUTURE TAF SETS GIVEN IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRASTIC WITH RESPECT TO
PREVAILING VFR OR IFR/VLIFR.
WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...BEATY
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