500
FXUS61 KCTP 210642
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
THE SEASONABLY SENSATIONAL STRETCH WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN-FREE PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR
AND CHILLY MOONLIT NIGHTS WITH AREAS OF FROST AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER INTO LATE WEEK TO
CAPTURE THE OBSERVED MIXING TRENDS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WERE ALSO REDUCED BY A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR IDEAL NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ARE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY AT ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA'S AIRFIELDS. THE
ONLY HICCUP IN THAT FORECAST WILL BE WHERE HREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS SHOWN FAIR SKILL IN HONING IN WHERE FOG WILL
FORM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS) CONTINUES TO OUTLINE NORTHERN
TIER FOR SOME CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION ACROSS NW PA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES (IFR AND BELOW) TO BFD IN THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW (~20-30%) FOR INCLUSION
IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE, BUT WILL REMAIN A LOWER- PROBABILITY
SOLUTION.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
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