785
FXUS61 KCTP 210823
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
423 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRIMMED DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
PERSISTENT, INCREDIBLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (UNDER 0.4
OF AN INCH) WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT (0.5-0.7 OF AN INCH) AND SOME
SCT-BKN, SHALLOW STRATOCU (MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS)
WILL ADVECT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK/DRY COLD
FRONT LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THU AFTERNOON AS SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF THE LOWER GLAKES.
THE STRETCH OF SENSATIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN-FREE PATTERN (ZERO POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY) IS HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR AND CHILLY MOONLIT NIGHTS
WITH AREAS OF FROST AND RIVER VALLEY FOG.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ANYWHERE FROM NORMAL (SUSQ VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PA VALLEYS TO 7 OR 8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL (CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS) TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE TAKING A BRIEF DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. A GRADUAL
REBOUND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR FOR SAT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
MONDAY'S MAXES AVERAGING 8-11 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL (WHICH EQUATES
TO LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS AND NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS).
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ARE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY AT ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA'S AIRFIELDS. THE
ONLY HICCUP IN THAT FORECAST WILL BE WHERE HREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS SHOWN FAIR SKILL IN HONING IN WHERE FOG WILL
FORM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS) CONTINUES TO OUTLINE NORTHERN
TIER FOR SOME CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION ACROSS NW PA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES (IFR AND BELOW) TO BFD IN THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW (~20-30%) FOR INCLUSION
IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE, BUT WILL REMAIN A LOWER- PROBABILITY
SOLUTION.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
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