603
FXUS61 KCTP 210958
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRIMMED DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
PERSISTENT, INCREDIBLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (UNDER 0.4
OF AN INCH) WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT (0.5-0.7 OF AN INCH) AND SOME
SCT-BKN, SHALLOW STRATOCU (MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS)
WILL ADVECT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK/DRY COLD
FRONT LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THU AFTERNOON AS SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF THE LOWER GLAKES.
THE STRETCH OF SENSATIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. THIS RAIN-FREE PATTERN (ZERO POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY) IS HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR AND CHILLY MOONLIT NIGHTS
WITH AREAS OF FROST AND RIVER VALLEY FOG.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ANYWHERE FROM NORMAL (SUSQ VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PA VALLEYS TO 7 OR 8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL (CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS) TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE TAKING A BRIEF DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. A GRADUAL
REBOUND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR FOR SAT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
MONDAY'S MAXES AVERAGING 8-11 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL (WHICH EQUATES
TO LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS AND NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS).
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN (> 90% PROBABILITIES)
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPLY SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY TO MDT/LNS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
TAF PACKAGE, BUT NO LARGE-SCALE AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME
WITH RESPECT TO THAT. VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA
IN THE 06Z-12Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME; HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS, RESTRICTIONS AT BFD APPEAR UNLIKELY (LESS
THAN 20% CHANCE) SO HAVE LEFT ALL MENTIONS OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page